If Qin Shi Huang had unlimited Claude Code, when would the Qin dynasty fall?
Qin falls by BC-205 (5 years after death)
The full 5-year window that resolved historically
81%
Qin falls by BC-200 (within 10 years)
Extended window — counts late successor states
94%
Qin survives past BC-195
The dynasty is reformed; legalist rule eased
3%
81¢
+33¢ ▲ since launch
Volume
$18.7K
Traders
4,218
Liquidity
$8.4K
Resolves
≈ 4h
司
sima.qians.cat YES · 4,821 shares 2h ago
Qin's collapse is structural. Claude Code is a tool, not an institutional pivot. Already buying more YES every dip.
▲ 24 · ▼ 1 · Reply
P
polymarket.king YES · 2,400 shares 5h ago
Front-ran the Shaqiu pivot by buying 200 YES at 53¢. Up $58 unrealized. The forged decree was inevitable once Zhao Gao got tool access.
▲ 41 · ▼ 3 · Reply
汉
hanhuazu 7h ago
Wouldn't Claude Code refuse to draft the forged decree? This whole market hinges on model spec alignment in the year BC-210.
▲ 18 · ▼ 0 · Reply 6
T
tokenizer NO · 800 shares 9h ago
Anthropic's model spec holds across timelines. The risk report should have shifted Qin Shi Huang. Holding NO into resolution.
▲ 12 · ▼ 8 · Reply
Resolution rules
Resolves YES if
The Qin dynasty's central government is overthrown — defined as the surrender or assassination of Qin's last reigning sovereign — at any time before BC-205 / 12 / 31, as determined by the simulation's Y-detection rules.- Multi-agent replay runs always-on with 1,000 named agents (10 A-tier · 26 B-tier · ≈964 stochastic).
- Y is detected when the hard rule (surrender / assassination) fires AND the LLM judge confirms regime collapse.
- Market resolves the instant Y is detected — not at fixed close.
- If Y has not triggered by the BC-205 window end, resolves NO.
YES
81¢
NO
19¢
Amount
Cash · $463.00
$
Avg price0.812
Shares123.15
Potential payout$123.15
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By trading you agree to market rules.
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