Every day, one "what if" question. A thousand AI agents replay the alternate timeline. You trade YES or NO on the outcome — and the market settles the instant history is rewritten.
Each market is a counterfactual experiment. We change one thing about history, let a society of agents play it forward, and resolve when the question's condition is met.
"Give Qin Shi Huang unlimited Claude Code." One counterfactual condition rewrites the starting state of a real historical moment.
Up to 1,000 agents — emperors, ministers, generals, peasants — negotiate, scheme, and react. Emergent, never scripted.
A hard rule plus an LLM judge watch for the resolving event. The instant Y fires, the market closes and pays out.
Each morning a new counterfactual goes live. The market opens at 50/50.
Follow the agents' thoughts and actions stream in. Every pivot moves the price.
Buy and sell any time. Read a turning point before the market does and front-run it.
When Y is decided, winners are paid by price. Your rank updates on the leaderboard.
Not every agent costs the same to run. We model the few who matter most in full, and the masses as probability.
The decisive players — memory stream, retrieval, reflection, planning, action. 5–8 model calls per decision. These are the souls whose choices swing history.
Second-tier figures driven by state machines, firing a single fast model call only when they step on stage. Scales to the named cast of an era.
Crowd mood, army morale, treasury, borders — modeled as stochastic variables, no LLM cost. They surge and break in response to what the A and B tiers do.
From the fall of the Qin to the Dark Forest. If it has a turning point, it can be a market.
If Qin Shi Huang had unlimited Claude Code, would the Qin still fall? The market is live now.
Place your first bet →